Four.

For the sake of everyone's unyielding curiosity, let’s break down every possible Final Four scenario to see who has the best shot of winning this thing. The following hypothetical scenarios are all based on the possible Championship Game matchups.

IF UNC BEATS UCLA…
Andy Popp will win. Popp nailed three of the four Final Four teams, picking Pitt to get there over Memphis.

IF UNC BEATS MEMPHIS…
Tiffany Baiardo will win. Tiff nailed all four Final Four teams, and is also beating her boyfriend Willis Barnes, much to Willis’ embarrassment.

IF KANSAS BEATS UCLA…
Lauren Duin will win. Lauren nailed all four Final Four teams.

IF KANSAS BEATS MEMPHIS…
Michael Marty will win. Marty also nailed all four Final Four teams.

IF UCLA BEATS UNC…
Alex Bratt will win. Thankfully, there is no possible scenario where Alex Bratt’s tiebreaker score of 87 can come into play and actually matter.

IF UCLA BEATS KANSAS…
Brandon Seroyer and Matt Crevier will tie at the top, and it will come down to each bracket’s tiebreaker score. Seroyer has 132; Crevier has 112.

IF MEMPHIS BEATS UNC…
Christina Duin will win. I’m slightly embarrassed that both my sisters correctly predicted all four Final Four teams, yet I did not.

IF MEMPHIS BEATS KANSAS…
Alex Rosenbloom will win, despite spending the past two weeks depressed by how poorly his brackets were doing.

I’m fairly certain all of these ‘predictions’ are correct, but I claim no responsibility if I missed something while perusing the brackets. Best of luck to all, especially my sisters.

National Holiday.

Sometime this week I'll figure out who wins the ALACS March Madness Pool based on every possible scenario that we have left; today, however, is Opening Day in the major leagues...and of course, the first real day of the ALACS Fantasy Baseball Season.

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners. 3:40 PM PST. Safeco Field.
It's Erik's time.

Eight.

Eight teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Here's how the top eight ALACS brackets can win.

1. Jon Wang, 74 Points. Best Score: 154
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Wisconsin, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPION: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Wang once again finds himself in the lead, even after taking a major hit in yesterday's Davidson/Wisconsin game. He has one problem, and that problem is writing this blog. If Kansas beats Davidson, The Commish will jump ahead of Wang, and the rest of their brackets are identical. Long story short: If Kansas beats Davidson, Wang can't win.

2 (tie). Brandon Seroyer, 71 Points. Best Score: 159
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPION: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Seroyer and fellow #2 Matt Crevier share the highest possible score in the pool, as well as the exact same results for the remainer of their brackets. As Seroyer conveniently pointed out to me last night via text message, this is the third year in a row he has nailed seven of the Elite Eight teams -- and given that Seroyer has won my NCAA bracket pool the last two years, the rest of us should probably start worrying. Brandon has all four #1s in the Final Four. The bad news for Seroyer? No Florida to count on as national champ this year.

2 (tie). Matt Crevier (2), 71 Points. Best Score: 159
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPION: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Again, Crevier and Seroyer have identical brackets from here on out -- if they both are correct, it'll come down to the Final Game Score Tiebreaker, which Crevier has at 112 and Seroyer has at 132.

4 (tie). Andy Popp (2), 70 Points. Best Score: 150
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Pitt, UCLA
CHAMPION: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Popp has already lost Pitt as a Final Four team; if Texas beats Memphis, Popp will be mathematically eliminated at the hands of Jon Wang.

4 (tie). Danny Hennessy, 70 Points. Best Score: 158
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPION: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Like much of the pool, the Texas/Memphis game is critical for him: if Texas and Kansas win, Hennessy jumps into the lead and controls his own destiny. If UCLA then beats Kansas in the title game, Hennessy wins the first event of the ALACS season.

6. Corey Mitchell, 69 Points. Best Score: 149
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPION: UCLA over Kansas
BEAKDOWN: Corey has lost Tennessee out of his Final Four and because he shares the rest of his bracket with Seroyer and Crevier has already been mathematically eliminated from winning the pool.

7. Willis Barnes (2), 68 Points. Best Score: 156
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPION: Kansas over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: If Kansas wins, Willis wins the pool. It's that simple.

8 (tie). Alex Bratt, 67 Points. Best Score: 155
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPION: UCLA over UNC
BREAKDOWN: Alex can win because he is the top person in the pool who has UCLA over UNC in the national championship. If that happens, Alex wins.

8 (tie). Mike Duin, 67 Points. Best Score: 155
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPION: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Thanks to Davidson beating Wisconsin and a still-intact Final Four, The Commish still has a chance to win this thing if he nails every single remaining game. I'm praying.

8 (tie). Joe Simich, 67 Points. Best Score: 147

FINAL FOUR: UNC, Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA

CHAMPION: UCLA over UNC

BREAKDOWN: Joe's best hope is to tie for the win -- this will only be possible if Kansas loses to Davidson and he nails the rest of his bracket. In the event that happens, he and Alex Bratt will tie for the win and the tiebreaker will decide it.

8 (tie). Andrew Gay (2), 67 Points. Best Score: 147

FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Stanford, UCLA
CHAMPION: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Gay has been mathematically eliminated from winning because he lost Stanford and shares the rest of his bracket with Wang and Popp, who are both ahead of him.

8 (tie). Ted Bergeron, 67 Points. Best Score: 147
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Stanford, UCLA
CHAMPION: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: See Gay's explanation above. Sorry Tee.

8 (tie). Jordan Spektor, 67 Points. Best Score: 123
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, USC, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPION: Memphis over USC
BREAKDOWN: ...see above. Spek's done.

8 (tie). Andy Popp (1), 67 Points. Best Score: 83
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier
CHAMPION: Stanford over Wiconsin
BREAKDOWN: "Simultaneous train wrecks." - the text I received from Andy as Wisconsin and Stanford both were discarded by double digits. This bracket is dead.

Sixteen.

In the spirit of the Sweet 16, which starts tonight, I'm going to break down what needs to happen for each of the current top 16 teams in the ALACS pool to win the $339 that goes to first place.

It's worthwhile to keep in mind that a correct Sweet 16 pick is worth 4 points, a correct Elite 8 pick is worth 8 points, a correct Final Four pick is worth 16 points, and picking the correct champion is worth 24 points.

1. Andrew Gay (2), 51 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Stanford, UCLA.
CHAMPIONSHIP: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Our current leader was the only person in the pool to correctly pick Western Kentucky, Villanova, and Davidson all reaching the Sweet 16. Gay has lost only one of his Elite Eight teams -- he had Kansas St. beating Davidson -- and shares his two Championship teams with much of the pool. The key to Andrew Gay's success is the South region -- he has Stanford beating Texas and Michigan St. prevailing over Memphis. If he nails both of those winners, I might as well start writing his check for first.

2 (tie). Alex Bratt, 47 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA.
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over UNC
BREAKDOWN: Bratt picked all four #1s to reach the Final Four -- something that, as the geniuses at Basketball Prospectus pointed out before the beginning of the tournament, has as good a statistical chance of happening as a #16 upsetting a #1 in the first round. He's lost Georgetown and Duke out of his Elite Eight, and otherwise has every single #1 and #2 advancing. Especially considering Memphis' free throw woes, Bratt is a longshot to win.

2 (tie). Andy Popp (1), 47 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier.
CHAMPIONSHIP: Stanford over Wisconsin
BREAKDOWN: Simply put, Popp is living and dying with his two #3 seeds. If Stanford and Wisconsin do in fact make it to the Championship game, Popp wins.

2 (tie). Joe Simich, 47 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA.
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over UNC
BREAKDOWN: Joe has lost Duke and G'Town out of his Elite Eight and G'Town out of his Final Four -- for Joe to beat Alex Bratt (who has the exact same Championship result), he will need Kansas to lose, Stanford to beat Texas, and Louisville to beat Tennessee. The chances of all of these things happening are not likely.

2 (tie). Jordan Spektor, 47 Points
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, USC, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: Memphis over USC
BREAKDOWN: USC's done and Memphis shot 59% from the FT line this year. Good luck next year, Spek.

6 (tie). Andy Popp (2), 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Pitt, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Popp's second bracket has lost Pitt out of his Final Four and Georgetown from his Elite Eight -- to catch current leader Andrew Gay, Popp's #2 bracket will need both Texas to beat Stanford AND Lousville to beat Tennessee. If those two things don't happen, he can't catch Gay.

6 (tie). Aurora Janke, 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, Duke
CHAMPIONSHIP: UNC over Duke
BREAKDOWN: Aurora needs a lot of help -- probably a little too much help given she's already lost one of her Championship teams. However, she has already scored a serious victory as she's beating her boyfriend, Sean Stokke. Stokke....hang your head in shame.

6 (tie). Danny Hennessy, 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Hennessy boasts an oustanding Final Four (at least in this Commissioner's biased opinion) and has only lost Stanford out of his Elite Eight. If Kansas gets to the title game, Hennessy is in great shape for a top 3 finish. However, he will have to worry about....

6 (tie). Michael Marty (1), 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas over Memphis
BREAKDOWN: Marty's technique was interesting in this bracket -- he chose all four #1s to make the Final Four, but also chose the two underdogs (relatively speaking) to play for the title. If Kansas and Memphis can both make it that far, Marty will almost certainly win.

6 (tie). Joe Nelson (1), 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Joe found a nice mix of bold picks and reliable ones -- no one ahead of him in the standings has Tennessee reaching the Final Four, so if that were to happen Joe would be gaining serious points on the rest of the field. It's worth noting that despite being a higher seed, Tennessee is a 3-point underdog to Louisville in their Sweet 16 game tonight.

6 (tie). Jon Wang, 46 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Wisconsin, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UNC over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Wang has been the ALACS leader for nearly the entire tournament -- he only recently dropped down after Butler, Notre Dame, and Georgetown all lost. Wang is the only person in the pool to have his entire Elite Eight intact -- if Wisconsin can defeat Kansas and make it to the Final Four, I'd mark Jon Wang down as your winner.

12 (tie). Corey Mitchell, 45 Points
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Corey has hope, but that hope depends on Memphis and Tennessee both making it to San Antonio, which seems like a longshot. He will need those two things to happen to win, as he has the same Championship game as Danny Hennessy, who's a point ahead of him.

12 (tie). Jane Scott, 45 Points
FINAL FOUR: Tennessee, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: Tennessee over Kentucky
BREAKDOWN: Sean Stokke's aunt Jane must be from the south. On a related note, she has no chance of winning this pool.

12 (tie). Lauren Duin, 45 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: Given that no one else above her in the pool has Kansas beating UCLA in the Championship Game, little sis Lauren will win the pool if her fairy tale ending becomes reality.

15 (tie). Mike Duin (2), 44 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Pitt, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over Kansas
BREAKDOWN: Given that The Commish has already lost a Final Four team and a couple people ranked ahead of him also have UCLA over Kansas...well, to hell with the third person. I'm not winning with this bracket.

15 (tie). John Rosinbum, 44 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Wisconsin, Stanford, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over UNC
BREAKDOWN: Rosinbum has a shot because of his Stanford and Wisconsin Final Four picks -- if both of these things happen, considering his dependable Championship picks, his bracket will become scary.

15 (tie). Matt Crevier (1), 44 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over UNC
BREAKDOWN: Crev's bracket simply has too much in common with those ahead of him. I could be wrong, but I think our favorite LMU grad has already been mathematically eliminated.

15 (tie). Willis Barnes (2), 44 Points
FINAL FOUR: UNC, Kansas, Texas, UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas over UCLA
BREAKDOWN: For Willis to beat Lauren Duin -- who has the exact same Championship result -- he will need Texas to beat Memphis and/or Xavier to beat West Virginia tonight. Another interesting spread: West Virginia is a favorite in that game, despite being the #7 seed to Xavier's #3.

So there you have it. Enjoy the games.

I'm beating ESPN to this!

Davidson comes back and beats Georgetown 74-70 after being down 17 points in the 2nd half. The legend of Stephen Curry, the 12-year-old Basketball Jesus, grows.

In the ALACS Pool, three of 66 brackets had Davidson prevailing over the Hoyas, and those three brackets were from the three Stanford alums in the pool: Andrew Gay, Kyle Davis, and Mike Lazar. An ALACS-funded study analyzing the correlation of GPA to Bracket Performance is forthcoming.

Three Current Scores...

(2) Tennessee 63, (7) Butler 63. 23.6 seconds left in the game.
(2) Georgetown 57, (10) Davidson 57. 5:07 left.
(12) Western Kentucky 60, (13) San Diego 57. 4:36 left.

I love March.

24 Down, 8 To Go

With eight first round games remaining, Jonathan Wang, a mysterious man who works with my roommate at Research in Motion, sits alone atop the leaderboard after picking 21 of 24 games correctly. I hope everyone got a chance to see the last couple minutes of Drake/Western Kentucky -- if you missed it, the last three minutes are available through the CBS On Demand program that lets you watch all the games online (just click 'Buzzer Beater'). That was about as good as it gets; as ALACS-er Adam Atkins so eloquently put it, "put it on the shelf of the all-time highlights" that March Madness is famous for.

In another dose of Day 2 excitement, San Diego outlasted UConn in overtime, winning on a fadeaway just inside the three-point arc with 1.2 seconds left, despite having their top two scorers foul out of the game. Worth noting: Only three of the 66 brackets in the ALACS pool did not have Drake or UConn advancing to the Sweet 16; Andrew Gay, Kyle Davis, and Jordan Spektor each had Western Kentucky winning two games.

Now we're talkin'

After a first day that saw teams winning by an average of 16 points per game, we're finally being treated to some true battles this morning. Gonzaga/Davidson lived up to expectations: Stephen Curry scored 30 points in the second half, 40 in all, and was 8-11 from beyond the arc as he almost single-handedly led the Wildcats to the second round. That guy can SHOOT. 15-seed American hung around with Tennessee until the last ten minutes of the game. And now, Drake has closed regulation on a 29-14 run to send their game with Western Kentucky into OT. A Drake loss would devastate one Matt Sachse, who has them winning...the entire tournament. Stay tuned.

Davidson/Gonzaga Highlights Day 2

Day 2 begins this morning with four early games, including the Gonzaga/Davidson game that might be the most interesting game all day. The Zags find themselves in the unfamiliar position of playing against the media's mid-major darling -- in the past, they've usually occupied that position themselves. Stephen Curry and Davidson have won 22 games in a row and didn't lose a game in whatever craptastic conference they played in this year.

Alex Bratt, Jon Wang, and Matt Langedyke each missed only one game in Day 1, which was devoid of any major upsets despite Belmont's best efforts to shock Duke. Remember, each first round game is only worth one point, compared to 16 for a correct Final Four pick and 24 for picking the right team to win it all. Enjoy the games.

Bracket Update; Trojans struggling

Through the morning's 8 games, seven brackets were perfect: Alex Bratt, Corey Mitchell, Damon Pryor, Matt Crevier, Matt Langedyke, and the boyfriend/girlfriend combo of Willis Barnes and Tiffany Baiardo. Sounds fishy to me. Hopefully Alex Bratt is not involved in a tiebreaker scenario at the end of the tournament, as he predicted a total score of 87 points in the championship game ("Ladies and Gentlemen, UCLA is your national champion...they win 57-30!!!").

In other news, my Trojans are down 10 to KSU at halftime. Bill Walker, OJ Mayo's high school teammate who now plays at Kansas State, is playing out of his mind and has 17 points at the half on 6-8 shooting. All week I said the same f'ing thing: Taj Gibson cannot get into foul trouble. He had three fouls with six minutes left in the first half. Weak.

The Best Day of the Year

I'd like to start off the first post of the ALACS Blog with a sincere thank you to everyone who joined our March Madness pool. I was optimistic sending out invitations, but I tried not to hope for as many brackets as we pulled into this pool. We have quite an eclectic group: within the ALACS pool there are fathers (mine and Kerry Burke's), aunts (Sean Stokke's), students abroad (my sister Christina and Adam Brady), alums of over 20 different colleges, and one guy with a really sweet name (Blaiz Grubic). There are 53 of us in total...all of whom, it should be noted, have more testicular fortitude than Brendan Meyer. Even the girls.

Who will the ALACS be rooting for (brackets aside) in the tournament?
Gonzaga (11 alums)
Oregon (8)
USC (6)
Stanford (3)
Portland St (3)
Duke (2)
Arizona (2)
Oklahoma (1)

Here is how the payout will work:
1st: $339
2nd: $150
3rd: $60
4th: $30
5th: $15

I'll be updating this throughout the opening weekend, the rest of the tournament, and the ALACS season (which lasts all year). Good luck with your brackets...