NBA Draft Day 2008

Follow along with five ALACS veterans as they attempt to predict the first round of the NBA Draft, with $100 going to the winner:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pydYizl3LDh-SxGanN3_bNw

Un-Skewing Strikeouts: Using K/9 Rate

The introduction of an IP cap to ALA Fantasy Baseball this year has made gauging a team’s strength in strikeouts more complicated than simply looking at the standings. No longer is winning the strikeouts category as simple as “amass as many Ks as possible” – each team is required to stay under 1500 IP over the course of the season, which places more value upon efficient pitchers with high K/9 IP rates. Using the K/9 statistic is the key to deciphering each team’s true relative strikeout strength.



The above table breaks down each team’s strikeouts, K/9 rate, and IP pace, as well as projecting the number of strikeouts each team would accumulate if each pitching staff were stretched to 1500 IP while maintaining their K/9 rate.

This last sentence is important because it would obviously be easier for some teams to maintain their current K/9 rate than it would be for others. It can be stated with near certainty that Billy Schreyer’s ShrayDay team will win the strikeouts category; his 8.15 K/9 rate is substantially higher than that of his competitors. Moreover, he has managed to significantly reduce his IP count, as he was on pace to amass over 1650 IP a month into the season. Billy can thank Edinson Volquez (10.42 K/9, 1st in MLB of pitchers who’ve pitched at least 60 IP) and Josh Beckett (9.31 K/9, 4th) for their contributions. (Along the lines of Volquez: How impressive is 10.42 K/9? Since 2005, only five pitchers have maintained a K/9 rate above 10 for an entire season)

Taking K/9 rate into account, most teams are sitting about where they should be in the strikeouts category. It should be noted that “most teams” does not include Poo Holes, managed by the infamously enigmatic Mike Rennard. Poo Holes is the only team in the league with a K/9 rate that comes close to that of Shray Day; both teams come in right at 8.15 K/9. However, Poo Holes also has 260 less IP than ShrayDay, an enormous discrepancy given that we’re not even halfway through the season yet. Despite having two of the top strikeout pitchers in the game (Tim Lincecum’s 9.03 K/9 is 7th in MLB; AJ Burnett’s 8.87 is 10th), Rennard has failed to surround those two aces with a stable of reliable arms. At this very moment, Poo Holes has only four other starting pitchers on his roster: an oft-injured Rich Harden, a demoted Max Scherzer, an injured Adam Wainwright, and a young-and-still-learning Matt Garza. Considering that Rennard is also currently forcing a demoted Billy Butler and an injured Alfonso Soriano into his everyday lineup, it can be stated with a fair amount of certainty that Poo Holes is intent on proving that last year’s championship was an aberration.

Recommended Reading

Fantasy Baseball Owner Rips Team In Media

Kudos to Sean Stokke for digging this one up.

Celtic Pride

The Celtics rewarded the 18 ALACS’ers who picked Boston as their NBA Champion in stylish fashion on Tuesday night, blowing out the Lakers by 39 points in the most lopsided championship-clinching-game in NBA playoff history. The Celtics’ celebrated ‘Big Three’ all showed up for Game 6, and they got some help from Rajon Rondo, who might have turned in the best game of his young NBA career: 21 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds, and 6 steals. Nice timing, Rajon.

The final NBA Playoff Pool standings (full brackets found here):

1. Mike Duin, 64 (-14 games) – $145
2. Sean Stokke, 64 (-15 games) – $60
3. Mike Lazar, 62 – $28
4. Colleen Northup, 60 – $10
5. Ted Bergeron, 58
6. Brandon Seroyer, 56
6. Cici Northup, 56
6. Dan Goldman, 56
9. Dave Christeson, 50
10. Jeff Vaudt, 48
10. Mike Marty, 48
10. Alex Rosenbloom, 48
13. Jordan Spektor, 46
13. Joe Nelson, 46
13. Shaun Wickers, 46
16. Loren Northup, 44
17. Kyle Davis, 42
18. Andrew Gay, 40
18. Joe Simich, 40
18. Matt Crevier, 40
21. Steve Duin, 38
22. Adam Brady, 36
23. Chris Platt, 34
24. Damon Pryor, 32
24. Micah Gantman, 32
26. Andy Popp, 28
27. Tim Hokit, 24

And with that, the second game of the 2008-09 ALACS season has concluded – updated ALACS Standings can be found here and are always available through the ALACS Home Page. Thanks to everyone for playing.

Tiger's 2008 Season: Extinct

BREAKING: Tiger Woods has announced that he will have surgery on his left knee, ending a 2008 season in which he played in six tournaments. In those six tournaments, Tiger made six cuts, won four times, and made $5,775,000. Tiger will miss the last two majors of the year -- the British Open and the PGA Championship -- leaving eight unlucky ALACS'ers in the dust. Tiger will also miss the Ryder Cup in September.

"This is Probably the Greatest Tournament I've Ever Had"

Tiger Woods won his first major of the year Monday when he prevailed over Rocco Mediate in an 18-hole playoff, rewarding the four ALACS’ers who chose to use the world’s best golfer for the US Open. Thanks to Tiger and a 4th place finish from Tier 4 golfer Robert Karlsson, Mike Lazar rang up the highest single-tournament score yet in the PGA Majors Game, posting 74.167 points for the Open. That score vaulted Lazar into second place with a total score of 86.292 points, just 0.375 behind still-leader Dan Goldman, who sits atop the standings with 86.667 points.

If you’re looking to draw anything meaningful from the performance of your foursome in yesterday’s major, I might come to the following conclusion: outside of Tiger, no one is reliable in these tournaments (a conclusion you assuredly came to yourself if you watched Phil Mickelson’s Kevin Costner-esque performance on the 13th hole on Saturday). In fact, not only have no other golfers proved dependable – but not even the tiers of golfers have demonstrated any sort of collective consistency. Consider the following:


Tiger has averaged 45 points per major; the collective tiers have averaged no fewer than 3.88 points and no more than 4.98 points. Further, Tier 4 golfers (golfers ranked 27+ in the pre-Masters World Golf Rankings) have outperformed Tier 2 golfers (ranked #7-14).

For those of you who haven’t yet used Tiger and have saved him for either the British Open or the PGA Championship? Anything short of a 2nd place finish would all but demolish your hopes of winning our PGA Majors Game – a prospect made much more interesting by the fact that Tiger stated, at the conclusion of the Open today, that he wasn’t sure whether he’d play in the British Open next month. Of course, if you’re still in relative contention and have not yet used Tiger, you’re sitting pretty…assuming, of course, that he continues this run of greatness.

(note: I can't get the order reversed for some reason, but it's better to be at the bottom of this chart with Teddy, not at the top with Chores McAvoy)

Next up: The British Open at Royal Birkdale, July 17th-20th.

US Open Scorecard

PGA Majors Game Particpants:
I'll be updating the ALACS US Open Scorecard frequently throughout the tournament. Refresh it for updates.

US Open Golfers Due Wednesday Night

Just a reminder that the 108th US Open Championship at Torrey Pines -- the second event of the ALACS PGA Majors Game -- begins bright and early Thursday morning. Get your golfers to the Commish by Wednesday night.

Standings can be found here: PGA Majors Game Standings.

NBA Playoff Pool: Standings Through Conference Finals

Here are the updated standings through the conclusion of the Conference Finals. There are two perfect brackets remaining. Following the standings, there is a list of the possible payouts depending on whether the Celtics or Lakers win the NBA Finals. As always, complete brackets can be viewed through the NBA Playoffs link at the ALA website.

If a participant's NBA Champion is not listed, their champ has already lost and their noted score is final.

1. Mike Duin, 48 (-14 games) (Celtics)
2. Sean Stokke, 48 (-15 games) (Celtics)
3. Mike Lazar, 46 (Celtics)
4. Colleen Northup, 44 (Celtics)
5. Ted Bergeron, 42 (Celtics)
6. Joe Simich, 40 (Lakers)
6. Matt Crevier, 40 (Lakers)
6. Brandon Seroyer, 40 (Celtics)
6. Cici Northup, 40 (Celtics)
6. Dan Goldman, 40 (Celtics)
11. Steve Duin, 38
12. Adam Brady, 36 (Lakers)
13. Chris Platt, 34 (Lakers)
13. Dave Christeson, 34 (Celtics)
15. Jeff Vaudt, 32 (Celtics)
15. Mike Marty, 32 (Celtics)
15. Alex Rosenbloom, 32 (Celtics)
18. Damon Pryor, 32
18. Micah Gantman, 32
20. Jordan Spektor, 30 (Celtics)
20. Joe Nelson, 30 (Celtics)
20. Shaun Wickers, 30 (Celtics)
23. Loren Northup, 28 (Celtics)
24. Andy Popp, 28
25. Kyle Davis, 26 (Celtics)
26. Tim Hokit, 24 (Lakers)
26. Andrew Gay, 24 (Celtics)

TOP 4 PAYOUT IF CELTICS WIN:
1. Mike Duin (64) (tiebreaker: 14 games off exact series lengths), $145
2. Sean Stokke (64) (tiebreaker: 15 games off exact series lengths), $60
3. Mike Lazar (62), $28
4. Colleen Northup (60), $10

TOP 4 PAYOUT IF LAKERS WIN:
1. Joe Simich (56) (tiebreaker: 5 games off total games in playoffs)*, $145
2. Matt Crevier (56) (tiebreaker: 6 games off total games in playoffs)*, $60
3. Adam Brady (52), $28
4. Chris Platt (50), $10

*= It's necessary to measure the tiebreaker differently depending on whether the Celtics or Lakers win. If the Celtics win, the two leaders (myself and Sean Stokke) would have perfect brackets, so it is easy to simply count how many games we were off on each series. However, if the Lakers win, Joe and Matt's brackets were not perfect, and the tiebreaker measurement used is the total length of the playoffs (as was specified at the top of the brackets before the playoffs began). It's essentially the same thing, just a different method of measurement.