Un-Skewing Strikeouts: Using K/9 Rate

The introduction of an IP cap to ALA Fantasy Baseball this year has made gauging a team’s strength in strikeouts more complicated than simply looking at the standings. No longer is winning the strikeouts category as simple as “amass as many Ks as possible” – each team is required to stay under 1500 IP over the course of the season, which places more value upon efficient pitchers with high K/9 IP rates. Using the K/9 statistic is the key to deciphering each team’s true relative strikeout strength.



The above table breaks down each team’s strikeouts, K/9 rate, and IP pace, as well as projecting the number of strikeouts each team would accumulate if each pitching staff were stretched to 1500 IP while maintaining their K/9 rate.

This last sentence is important because it would obviously be easier for some teams to maintain their current K/9 rate than it would be for others. It can be stated with near certainty that Billy Schreyer’s ShrayDay team will win the strikeouts category; his 8.15 K/9 rate is substantially higher than that of his competitors. Moreover, he has managed to significantly reduce his IP count, as he was on pace to amass over 1650 IP a month into the season. Billy can thank Edinson Volquez (10.42 K/9, 1st in MLB of pitchers who’ve pitched at least 60 IP) and Josh Beckett (9.31 K/9, 4th) for their contributions. (Along the lines of Volquez: How impressive is 10.42 K/9? Since 2005, only five pitchers have maintained a K/9 rate above 10 for an entire season)

Taking K/9 rate into account, most teams are sitting about where they should be in the strikeouts category. It should be noted that “most teams” does not include Poo Holes, managed by the infamously enigmatic Mike Rennard. Poo Holes is the only team in the league with a K/9 rate that comes close to that of Shray Day; both teams come in right at 8.15 K/9. However, Poo Holes also has 260 less IP than ShrayDay, an enormous discrepancy given that we’re not even halfway through the season yet. Despite having two of the top strikeout pitchers in the game (Tim Lincecum’s 9.03 K/9 is 7th in MLB; AJ Burnett’s 8.87 is 10th), Rennard has failed to surround those two aces with a stable of reliable arms. At this very moment, Poo Holes has only four other starting pitchers on his roster: an oft-injured Rich Harden, a demoted Max Scherzer, an injured Adam Wainwright, and a young-and-still-learning Matt Garza. Considering that Rennard is also currently forcing a demoted Billy Butler and an injured Alfonso Soriano into his everyday lineup, it can be stated with a fair amount of certainty that Poo Holes is intent on proving that last year’s championship was an aberration.

Recommended Reading

Fantasy Baseball Owner Rips Team In Media

Kudos to Sean Stokke for digging this one up.

Debut.

"Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He's a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic. Perfect World Projection: A perennial All-Star and MVP candidate. A true superstar in the mold of a healthy Larry Walker."

Welcome to the Majors, Jay.

FMLB Team Spotlight: The Waiver Wire Magician

Billy Schreyer has led an intriguing ALA career. As one of the Founding Fathers of A Level Above, he was there in the beginning, fielding a team in all three of ALA’s fantasy games. Yet in recent years, Billy has drifted into the murky underworld of our great fantasy league – first by disappearing from the realm of fantasy football, and then by announcing his retirement from fantasy hoops after an infamous stretch in which he abandoned an injury-crippled team, forcing his hurt players onto the floor when all they wanted was a seat on the bench to rest their torn ACLs and broken limbs. It seemed as though the lack of an ALA Championship had all but demolished Billy Schreyer’s fantasy spirit. Yet through it all, the man they call ‘Ill Bills’ made one thing clear: he would never quit playing fantasy baseball.

And now, six weeks into the 2008 Fantasy MLB season, Billy Schreyer finds himself in an unfamiliar position: 1st place. The top of the heap. How has he gotten there? Where did this sudden, surprising resurgence come from? And the most pressing question: will ShrayDay be able to stay on top?

Billy has a very balanced team – of his league-leading 97.0 Roto Points as of May 14th, 46.5 of those come from his hitters and 50.5 come from his pitching staff. What’s astonishing about Billy’s team is where his stars came from. Billy made a few great draft picks – notably, spending $24 auction dollars on Chipper Jones, who has aged like a fine wine. Chipper’s currently putting up an unbelievable .415 AVG/.475 OBP/.683 SLG and is on pace for 43 HR and 135 RBI. If you’re looking for another outstanding auction pick, look no further than Pat Burrell. After Burrell batted .257 and .256 in the last two years, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the rest of the league let him go to ShrayDay cheaply, at $13 – Burrell has looked like a less powerful Adam Dunn in recent years, as dependable for 30 HR as he was to do serious damage to a fantasy team’s batting average. This year, much to Billy’s delight, Burrell has kept his average above .300 all year and is also slugging a full 120 points higher than his career slugging percentage.



As impressive as Jones and Burrell have been, let there be no doubt why Billy Schreyer is currently in 1st place. As of May 14th, ShrayDay owned three of the top seven players on the ESPN Player Rater, as well as the 14th ranked player. Here are those four players:

#3: Chipper Jones – .415 AVG, 27 R, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 0 SB
#4: Cliff Lee – 6-0, 44 K, 0.67 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
#7: Nate McLouth – .305 AG, 32 R, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 3 SB
#14: Edinson Volquez – 6-1, 57 K, 1.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

We’ve discussed Chipper – but look at those other three names. Look at ‘em hard. Now, look at the percentage of CBS leagues that Lee, McLouth, and Volquez were owned in when the fantasy baseball season began:

Cliff Lee: Owned in 21% of leagues
Nate McLouth: Owned in 27% of leagues
Edinson Volquez: Owned in 60% of leagues

This is the amazing thing. Billy picked up all three of those players as free agents after the draft. Cliff Lee, who was demoted to the minors last year after posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, has come back this year looking like the second coming of Sandy Koufax. Lee’s numbers are beyond mindblowing. They’re seemingly impossible. 53.7 IP. 44 K. Four – FOUR!!! – walks. His 0.67 ERA is the 6th lowest ERA after seven starts since World War II. All of this from someone whose career looked resigned to that of a journeyman after his failed 2007 campaign.



Billy Schreyer’s first place team is Exhibit A in the Museum of Why It Pays Off to Pay Attention. The scary thing? Though Chipper would be hard-pressed to maintain a .415 batting average all year, and Lee’s ERA will certainly not stay below 1.00 forever, ShrayDay isn’t likely to fade away. Even outside of the four fantasy superstars we’ve discussed, Billy has a reliable supporting cast in place – a group that includes a stingy John Smoltz, a reborn Ryan Dempster, and a hard-throwing Josh Beckett on his pitching staff, and a few hitters who haven’t yet hit their stride – notably Robinson Cano and Brad Hawpe. Billy will have to keep an eye on the IP Pace of his pitching staff: he’s currently on track for 1693 IP, far over the 1500 IP limit. But the way his arms are throwing right now, I’m not sure there’s any reason not to run straight into that 1500 IP wall – if ShrayDay’s starters keep throwing like they have, the rest of teams in this league will have their hands full trying to match their peripherals.

National Holiday.

Sometime this week I'll figure out who wins the ALACS March Madness Pool based on every possible scenario that we have left; today, however, is Opening Day in the major leagues...and of course, the first real day of the ALACS Fantasy Baseball Season.

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners. 3:40 PM PST. Safeco Field.
It's Erik's time.